If you’re looking for a real estate agent to help sell your house in 2024, or you desperately want to transition from renting to buying your first home, this blog will summarize our thoughts on why 2024 could be the year to make it happen.
The start of a new year is a time for reflection and a chance to start fresh. The year was marked by a rocky real estate market in the wake of unprecedented pricing at the start of the decade. No one correctly predicted what the market would do in 2023.
What will 2024 have in store? Here are Adrian and Ariel’s real estate predictions if you plan on buying or selling a home in the coming year.
2024 Mortgage Renewals
In Canada in 2023, there were 878,000 mortgage renewals, according to the CMHC. In 2024, 1,000,059 mortgages are going to be renewed. These are mortgages renewing at 2019 rates when the average was in the 3% range, which has now doubled. Adrian expects a predictable trend, with few peaks and valleys as prices stabilize. For the first half of 2024, he expects prices to decline slightly. Some people think there will be a big boom in the market after the 2023 pricing declines. Adrian sees this as wishful thinking and expects the market to continue as it has for the last quarter.
Ariel’s take is that you’ve got confused buyers, unsure of when it’s the right time to buy, afraid of buying and then having the prices come down or having the mortgage rates go up. He thinks the rates may still go up a little in the new year because bank profits are down, and increasing rates will give them a rise in their bottom line. Adrian disagrees on this point, seeing banks decreasing rates to be more competitive and saying that all levels of government are committed to making real estate more affordable.
Of course, “affordable” is a relative term. According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), In November 2023, the average price of a resale home sold in Ontario was $879,300. Ariel does the math at 16:00 minutes into the podcast, and it’s not hard to see that the average mortgage has become unattainable for many. The Government of Ontario has introduced a bill called the Affordable Homes and Good Jobs Act. If passed, it would include income as a measure of affordability. Stay tuned.
Will 2024 Be a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?
Will 2024 be a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market? Ariel predicts that in January and February, housing inventory across the GTA will decrease, and the number of buyers will increase as spring approaches. At some point, there will be more buyers than inventory, which could lead to bidding wars. If that happens, more sellers will list their homes in the same time frame, creating a surplus of houses for sale and causing a shift back to a buyers’ market.
Where Adrian predicts stability in the 2024 market, Ariel sees more chaos over the course of the coming year, with demand fluctuating from month to month.
What will a $1,000,000 house sell for December 24, 2024? Ariel forecasts an increase of between 3% and 4%, while Adrian is betting it will be worth about the same.
Ariel’s 2024 tip for buyers is that it is a very good time to buy a home. Chances are, your mortgage rate will go down in the not-too-distant future. For sellers, this is a tremendous opportunity to upgrade. You’ve got equity in your home, and now is the time to get your house ready if you’re considering upgrading in 2024 or even 2025. Your property must be ready to hit the market within 7 to 10 days.
Regardless of what the new year brings to the real estate market, we wish you a healthy and prosperous 2024.
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